欧洲央行：5月号欧元区经济公报

欧洲央行：5月号欧元区经济公报(2020.06.04) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：新冠疫情爆发以来的最新经济指标显示，欧元区经济活动急剧萎缩，劳动力市场迅速恶化。鉴于此，在近一次货币政策会议上，欧洲央行宣布进一步放宽定向长期再融资操作的条件，并推出新的抗疫紧急长期再融资操作，以支持欧元区家庭、企业和银行的信贷需求，确保信贷资金平稳流向实体经济领域。 　　（外脑精华·北京）经济形势评估 　　欧元区面临和平年代规模和速度空前的经济收缩。遏制新冠疫情蔓延的措施已经使得欧元区所有国家和全球的经济活动基本陷入停滞。欧元区消费者和企业信心调查指标暴跌，这表明欧元区经济增速已经大幅下滑，而且劳动力市场状况严重恶化。鉴于新冠疫情带来的经济后果存在不确定性，欧洲央行预测今年欧元区GDP可能将会下降5%～12%，确切降幅将主要取决于疫情防控措施的持续时间以及旨在减轻企业和就业人员的政策的成效。欧洲央行所做预测预计，随着疫情遏制措施逐步解除，预计欧元区经济活动将会复苏，但复苏进度和程度仍存在高度不确定性。油价暴跌导致欧元区通胀率下滑，而且不含能源和食品的欧元区核心通胀率略降。 　　为在目前经济受困和不确定性凸显情况下继续支持欧元区经济，欧洲央行理事会决定进一步放宽定向长期再融资操作的条件和推出一系列新的抗疫紧急长期再融资操作。此外，欧洲央行正在根据《抗疫紧急购债计划》来购买债券，同时《资产购买计划》继续以每月200亿欧元的进度推进，与此同时，在今年年底前，《资产购买计划》获得1200亿欧元的临时额外购买额度。这些措施和已经推动的大规模货币政策刺激措施将支持流动性和融资条件，并将有助于保持向实体经济平稳提供信贷。与此同时，欧洲央行理事会将需要继续对这些单项措施和整体措施进行评估，以评估这些措施是否仍具有充分的校准空间以及规模是否适合提供必要程度的调节，以实现物价稳定目标。 　　新冠疫情的爆发和新冠疫情防控措施导致全球经济贸易陷入瘫痪。最新调查指标数据显示，全球经济活动在2020年上半年锐减。2020年1季度，中国经济增速降至数十年来的最低水平，而疫情对其他主要经济体的影响预计将在今年2季度尤为凸显。估计供应链中断和需求全面遭受冲击也将导致全球贸易额锐减。与此同时，预期急剧下滑的球活动和贸易遭到全球各国采取的严格防控措施的影响。以及油价暴跌以及需求下降将使全球通胀压力进一步减弱。 　　自欧洲央行今年3月货币政策会议以来，欧元区长期主权债券收益率在震荡行情中已上升，而且风险资产价格已经下跌。由于市场不再预期欧洲央行将很快再度下调存款利率，欧元无担保之加权平均隔夜利率远期曲线略有上移。在外汇市场，欧元贸易加权汇率略有下跌。 　　冠状疫情蔓延至欧元区以来的最新经济指标和调查结果显示，欧元区经济出现空前规模的下滑，表明欧元区经济活动急剧萎缩和劳动力市场迅速恶化。新冠疫情和新冠疫情防控措施对欧元区制造业和服务业造成严重影响，进而造成欧元区经济产能和内需的下降。在尚未全面遭受新冠疫情蔓延影响的今年1季度，1季度后期开始实施的封锁措施造成欧元区实际GDP环比下降3.8%。4月份经济活动的锐减表明欧元区经济在今年2季度可能将遭受更严重的冲击。鉴于新冠疫情持续时间存在高度不确定，很难预测即将出现的欧元区经济衰退和随后的复苏的程度和持续时间。防控措施的逐步解除，以及在良好的融资条件、欧元区财政状况和全球经济活动复苏推动下，预计欧元区经济将恢复增长。不过，欧元区经济衰退和复苏的程度将主要取决于疫情防控措施实施的期限和成效、供应能力和内需将遭受持续影响的期限，以及政策能否有效减轻对收入和就业的负面影响。 　　欧盟统计局初步预计数据显示，今年4月份欧元区通胀率从3月份的0.7%降至0.4%，这主要是能源价格下跌所致，但不含能源和食品的4月份欧元区通胀率也略降。基于现行油价和期货油价暴跌情况分析，欧元区整体通胀率在未来几个月中可能将进一步大幅下降。预计在未来几个月中，经济活动的严重衰退将对欧元区潜在通胀产生负面影响。不过，鉴于供应中断带来的上行压力可能会在一定程度上抵消需求减弱带来的下行压力，冠状疫情对欧元区通胀的中期影响存在高度不确定性。欧元区长期通胀预期的市场指标仍处于低点水平。虽然基于调查的通胀预期指标在短期和中期已经下降，但长期通胀预期受到的影响相对较小。 　　在货币发展态势方面，今年3月份欧元区广义货币供应量（M3）同比增速从2月的5.5%升至7.5%。广义货币供应量的增长继续受到银行信贷增长的推动，而且狭义货币供应量（M1）仍是广义货币供应量增长的主要贡献者。今年3月份欧洲家庭部门贷款年同比增速从2月份的3.7%降至为3.4%，3月份欧元区非金融企业部门贷款同比增从2月份的3%升至5.4%。欧元区银行业2020年1季度贷款调查结果显示，企业贷款需求和利用信贷额度来满足流动资金需求的需求激增，而固定投资的融资需求已经下降。欧元区银行业对企业贷款的信贷标准略有收紧，而对家庭部门贷款的信贷标准则大幅收紧。与此同时，欧元区银行机构预计在今年2季度将放宽对企业贷款的信贷标准。欧洲央行的政策措施，尤其是放宽定向长期再融资操作的条款和放宽抵押品标准的措施，将会促使欧元区的银行机构向所有私营部门的实体提供贷款。 　　货币政策决策 　　基于经济分析结果和货币分析显示的迹象，欧洲央行理事会认为有必要采取充分宽松的货币政策来确保欧元区通胀率在中期内继续持续趋同于低于但接近2%的水平。 　　基于这一评估结论，欧洲央行理事会进一步放宽欧洲央行第三轮定向长期再融资操作的条件。为在目前经济受困和不确定性凸显情况下，这将会推动流向欧元区家庭和企业部门的信贷进一步增长，进而减轻新冠疫情对信贷条件的冲击。具体而言，欧洲央行理事会决定在2020年6月至2021年6月期间，将第三轮定向长期再融资操作的利率下调至比同期欧元系统主要再融资操作的平均利率低50个基点。此外，对于符合条件的净贷款达到0%的贷款绩效门槛的交易对手，2020年6月至2021年6月期间的利率将比同期的平均存款利率低50个基点。 　　欧洲央行理事会还决定退出一系列新的口抗议紧急长期再融资操作，以支持欧元区金融系统的流动性状况，并通过提供有效的流动性后盾来帮助维系货币市场的平稳运行。本轮操作包含7项新的再融资操作，自今年5月开始，将在2021年7月至9月期间交错到期，这同欧洲央行放宽抵押品标准的措施的期限一致。这些操作将以固定利率投标、全额配给方式进行，利率将比主要再融资操作的利率低25个基点。 　　自3月末以来，欧洲央行理事会已经总规模为7500亿欧元的《抗疫紧急购债计划》来购买债券，以放宽整体货币政策立场、应对货币政策传导机制面临的重大风险以及新冠疫情给欧元区前景带来的重大风险。随着时间的推移，这些债券的购买将继续在不同资产类别和不同司法管辖区之间以灵活方式进行。在欧洲央行理事会断定新冠危机结束之前（但无论如何要到今年年底），欧洲央行将根据《抗疫紧急购债计划》的指导下进行资产净购买。 　　此外，根据《资产购买计划》进行的净购买将继续以每月200亿欧元的进度进行，同时在今年年底前，拥有1200亿欧元的临时增买额度。欧洲央行理事会继续预计，根据《资产购买计划》进行的月度资产的净购买将持续至必要时间，以增强欧元区政策利率的宽松影响，并在开始上调欧洲央行关键利率前不久结束。 　　欧洲央行理事会还计划，在开始上调欧洲央行主导利率后，在一段较长时期内，继续对根据《资产购买计划》购买的债券中的到期债券的全额本金进行再投资，而且如有必要，将继续维系良好的流动性环境和货币政策足够宽松。 　　此外，欧洲央行理事会决定维持欧洲央行主导利率不变，并且预期欧洲央行主导利率将维持在现行水平或更低水平，直至欧元区通胀率在预测期内强劲回升至足以达到接近但低于2%的目标，而且这种趋同一直反映出潜在通胀率的动态。 　　总体而言，自3月初以来，欧洲央行理事会采取的果断且富有针对性的政策措施为欧元区经济，尤其是受危机影响最严重的行业，提供了至关重要的支持。具体而言，这些措施在支持流动条件以及帮助推动信贷流向家庭和企业部门，尤其是中小企业，并为所有行业和管辖区维系良好的融资条件。 　　与此同时，在当前迅速变化的经济环境下，欧洲央行理事会仍将全面致力于在其职责范围内采取一切必要措施，以支持欧元区所有公民度过这一极具挑战性的时期。这是欧洲央行理事会的首要职责，即确保欧洲央行的货币政策传导至经济的所有行业和所有司法管辖区，以实现欧洲央行物价稳定目标。因而，如有必要，欧洲央行理事会全面准备提高《抗疫紧急购债计划》的规模以及调整其内容。无论如何，欧洲央行理事会随时准备斟酌情况调整其所有工具，以确保欧元区通胀率继续以持续方式迈向其所定的通胀目标，保持其所承诺的对称性。 　　英文原文： Economic Bulletin 　　Update on economic and monetary developments．The euro area is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime. Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) have largely halted economic activity in all the countries of the euro area and across the globe. Survey indicators for consumer and business sentiment have plunged, suggesting a sharp contraction in economic growth and a profound deterioration in labour market conditions. Given the high uncertainty surrounding the ultimate extent of the economic fallout, growth scenarios produced by ECB staff suggest that euro area GDP could fall by between 5% and 12% this year, depending crucially on the duration of the containment measures and the success of policies to mitigate the economic consequences for businesses and workers. As the containment measures are gradually lifted, these scenarios foresee a recovery in economic activity, although its speed and scale remain highly uncertain. Inflation has declined as a result of the sharp fall in oil prices and slightly lower HICP inflation excluding energy and food. 　　In its determination to continue to support the euro area economy in the face of the current economic disruption and heightened uncertainty, the Governing Council decided to further ease the conditions on the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) and to launch a new series of non-targeted pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations (PELTROs). In addition, purchases are conducted under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), while net purchases are continuing under the asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion together with the APP purchases under the additional €120 billion temporary envelope available until the end of the year. Together with the substantial monetary policy stimulus already in place, these measures will support liquidity and funding conditions and help to preserve the smooth provision of credit to the real economy. At the same time, the Governing Council will need to continually evaluate the measures, individually and as a package, to assess whether they are still adequately calibrated and of an appropriate size to provide the necessary degree of accommodation in the pursuit of its price stability mandate. 　　The coronavirus outbreak and the associated containment measures have paralysed the global economy and trade. The latest survey data point to a sharp contraction in global activity in the first half of 2020. China recorded its lowest growth level in decades in the first quarter of 2020, while the impact of the pandemic on other key economies is expected to be particularly visible in the second quarter. World trade is also estimated to have fallen sharply, driven by supply chain disruptions and a widespread demand shock. At the same time, the expected rapid deterioration in global activity and trade has been met with forceful policy measures globally. Global inflationary pressures are expected to decrease further as a result of both the sharp fall in oil prices and weak demand. 　　Since the Governing Council meeting in early March 2020, long-term sovereign yields have increased amid some volatility and the price of risky assets has decreased. The spread of the coronavirus and the lockdown of numerous economies have placed enormous strain on euro area financial markets. However, a number of policy actions have helped to calm markets, leading to a reversal of the negative trend in most asset prices. The EONIA forward curve shifted slightly upwards, as markets were no longer expecting an imminent reduction in the deposit facility rate. In foreign exchange markets, the euro weakened slightly in trade-weighted terms. 　　The latest economic indicators and survey results covering the period since the coronavirus spread to the euro area have shown an unprecedented decline, pointing to a significant contraction in euro area economic activity and to rapidly deteriorating labour markets. The coronavirus pandemic and the associated containment measures have severely affected the manufacturing and services sectors, taking a toll on the productive capacity of the euro area economy and on domestic demand. In the first quarter of 2020, which was only partially affected by the spread of the coronavirus, euro area real GDP decreased by 3.8%, quarter on quarter, reflecting the impact of the lockdown measures in the final weeks of the quarter. The sharp downturn in economic activity in April suggests that the impact is likely to be even more severe in the second quarter. Given the highly uncertain duration of the pandemic, the likely extent and duration of the imminent recession and the subsequent recovery are difficult to predict.[1] Euro area growth is expected to resume as the containment measures are gradually lifted, supported by favourable financing conditions, the euro area fiscal stance and a resumption in global activity. However, the extent of the contraction and the recovery will depend crucially on the duration and the success of the containment measures, how far supply capacity and domestic demand are permanently affected, and the success of policies in mitigating the adverse impact on incomes and employment. 　　According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation decreased from 0.7% in March to 0.4% in April, largely driven by lower energy price inflation, but also slightly lower HICP inflation excluding energy and food. On the basis of the sharp decline in current and futures prices for oil, headline inflation is likely to decline considerably further over the coming months. The sharp downturn in economic activity is expected to lead to negative effects on underlying inflation over the coming months. However, the medium-term implications of the coronavirus pandemic for inflation are surrounded by high uncertainty, given that downward pressures linked to weaker demand may be partially offset by upward pressures related to supply disruptions. Market-based indicators of longer-term inflation expectations have remained at depressed levels. Even though survey-based indicators of inflation expectations have declined over the short and medium term, longer-term expectations have been less affected. 　　Regarding monetary developments, broad money (M3) growth increased to 7.5% in March 2020, from 5.5% in February. M3 growth continues to be backed by bank credit creation for the private sector, and the narrow monetary aggregate M1 remained the main contributor to broad money growth. Developments in loans to the private sector have also been shaped by the impact of the coronavirus. The annual growth rate of loans to households stood at 3.4% in March 2020, after 3.7% in February, while the annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations stood at 5.4% in March, after 3.0% in February. The results of the euro area bank lending survey for the first quarter of 2020 also indicate a surge in firms’ demand for loans and for drawing on credit lines to meet liquidity needs for working capital, while financing needs for fixed investment have declined. Credit standards for loans to firms tightened slightly, while credit standards for loans to households tightened more strongly. At the same time, banks expect an easing of credit standards for loans to firms in the second quarter of 2020. The Governing Council’s policy measures, in particular the more favourable terms for TLTRO III operations and the collateral easing measures, should encourage banks to extend loans to all private sector entities. 　　Combining the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis, the Governing Council confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation is necessary for the robust convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. 　　On the basis of this assessment, the Governing Council decided to further ease the conditions on the ECB’s TLTRO III operations .This will support further the provision of credit to households and firms in the face of the current economic disruption and heightened uncertainty, buffering the coronavirus shock on credit conditions. Specifically, the Governing Council decided to reduce the interest rate on TLTRO III operations during the period from June 2020 to June 2021 to 50 basis points below the average interest rate on the Eurosystem’s main refinancing operations prevailing over the same period. Moreover, for counterparties whose eligible net lending reaches the lending performance threshold of 0%, the interest rate over the period from June 2020 to June 2021 will now be 50 basis points below the average deposit facility rate prevailing over the same period.[2] 　　The Governing Council also decided on a new series of non-targeted pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations (PELTROs) to support liquidity conditions in the euro area financial system and contribute to preserving the smooth functioning of money markets by providing an effective liquidity backstop. The PELTROs consist of seven additional refinancing operations commencing in May 2020 and maturing in a staggered sequence between July and September 2021 in line with the duration of the Governing Council’s collateral easing measures. They will be carried out as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment, with an interest rate that is 25 basis points below the average rate on the main refinancing operations prevailing over the life of each PELTRO.[3] 　　Since the end of March the Governing Council has been conducting purchases under the ECB’s new pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), which has an overall envelope of €750 billion, to ease the overall monetary policy stance and to counter the severe risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the outlook for the euro area posed by the coronavirus pandemic. These purchases will continue to be conducted in a flexible manner over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions. Net asset purchases will be conducted under the PEPP until the Governing Council judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over, but in any case until the end of this year. 　　Moreover, net purchases under the ECB’s APP will continue at a monthly pace of €20 billion, together with the purchases under the additional €120 billion temporary envelope until the end of the year. The Governing Council continues to expect monthly net asset purchases under the APP to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of the policy rates in the euro area, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates. 　　The Governing Council also intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation. 　　In addition, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged and expects them to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics. 　　Overall, the decisive and targeted policy measures that the Governing Council has taken since early March have provided crucial support to the euro area economy and especially to the sectors most exposed to the crisis. In particular, the measures are supporting liquidity conditions and helping to sustain the flow of credit to households and firms, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and to maintain favourable financing conditions for all sectors and jurisdictions. 　　At the same time, in the current rapidly evolving economic environment, the Governing Council remains fully committed to doing everything necessary within its mandate to support all citizens of the euro area through this extremely challenging time. This applies first and foremost to the role of the Governing Council in ensuring that the ECB’s monetary policy is transmitted to all parts of the economy and to all jurisdictions in the pursuit of its price stability mandate. The Governing Council is, therefore, fully prepared to increase the size of the PEPP and adjust its composition, by as much as necessary and for as long as needed. In any case, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry. 来源：欧洲央行 \t