摩根士丹利：本轮经济衰退更为严重但将较为短暂

摩根士丹利：本轮经济衰退更为严重但将较为短暂(2020.05.26) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：美欧发布的1季度经济数据证实，新冠疫情已经引发全球经济衰退。鉴于本次经济衰退并非源于金融危机或全球失衡加剧，摩根士丹利判断，虽然本轮衰退的严重程度将超过2008年全球金融危机所引发的衰退，但持续时间将会更短。摩根士丹利预计，2季度全球经济将下滑7.5%，而全球和发达国家的产出将分别在4个季度和8个季度后恢复至衰退前的水平。 　　（外脑精华·北京）虽然美国和欧元区在4月末发布的1季度GDP数据正式证实了我们已经知晓一段时间的一个事实：全球经济衰退已经开始。不过，我和摩根士丹利研究部的同事们认为，本次经济衰退的严重程度将超过2008年开始的全球金融危机，但持续时间将会更短。 　　我们的理由是什么？首先，衰退是由以一场公共卫生危机形式出现的一起外部冲击事件所引发，而不是由全球失衡加剧这一典型根源所引发。本次衰退也并非始于金融危机，当前银行体系的状况优于2008年危机前。 　　此外，这次衰退促使我们目睹了现代最协调、最激进的货币和财政宽松政策。对于中国和G4集团（美国、欧元区、日本和英国地区）而言，财政赤字/GDP的占比将是上次衰退时的1.5倍。同样，G4集团成员国的央行也在积极扩张其资产负债表。美联储的资产负债表/GDP的占比将上升38%，超过美联储在2008年之后的三个量化宽松阶段中20%的升幅。 　　我们估计，今年2季度全球经济将下滑7.5%（远大于2009年第1季度2.4%的降幅），而全球和发达国家的产出将分别在4个季度和8个季度中恢复至衰退前的水平，而在全球金融危机后，全球和发达国家的产出分别是在6个季度和14个季度中才恢复至衰退前的水平。 　　乐观动向 　　我们来看本轮衰退将较为短暂的原因。目前，我们追踪的众多高频指标都显示，全球经济正处于筑底过程中。消费者预期好转，交通指标触底回升，消费支出跌势减缓。 　　我们的IT服务和支付行业股票分析师詹姆斯·福西特指出，信用卡交易数据表明，美国的交易额和销售额在过去两周中已经双双回升。中国经济在2月份触底，而且我们认为欧元经济区可能已在4月份触底，美国经济也在4月底触底。在中欧和东欧、中东、非洲和拉丁美洲等其他地区，经济应该会在更晚一些时候触底回升。 　　我们目前看到美国和欧洲出现分阶段重启经济的迹象。随着经济活动重启以及返岗就业人员增多，流动性趋势指标和产出水平将会进一步回升。在美国，一些州已经开始重启经济活动，我们的美国经济和生物技术团队估测，到5月中旬，54%的美国经济将进入富有意义的重启阶段。这一估测假定美国各州经济活动将能在新确诊的新冠病例创下峰值后的28天重启（第2阶段）。欧洲各国的经济也将从5月初开始逐步重启。 　　重启经济 　　在世界部分地区逐步重启经济的过程中，我们一直在密切关注中国经济的发展态势，以了解中国经济领域的各行各业如何恢复常态，以及这一经历可能将如何影响我们对世界其他地区的展望。可以肯定的是，鉴于各国新冠疫情的严重程度不同以及美国、欧洲和中国的经济活动的基本构成不同，我们的观点是基于复苏的路径而得出，而不是基于复苏的持续时间和规模而得出。 　　就中国而言，制造业、基础设施及建筑业的复苏进程较快。数据显示，中国制造业已恢复扩张态势，而中国的地产销量以及钢铁和水泥需求恢复同比呈现增长态势，这距离新订单数量创下峰值仅仅10周时间。中国的供应中断已迅速缓解，而且中国的产出呈V型复苏态势。所有这些态势表明，美国和欧洲的制造业在复工后可能将会呈现一种类似的发展态势。 　　中国消费举世瞩目 　　不过，鉴于美国和欧洲属于消费主导型经济体，投资者正在密切关注中国的消费活动。虽然各行业的复苏进度不一，但中国消费呈回暖迹象。然而，分阶段解除限制与社交隔离措施已经拖缓了中国消费复苏的整体进度。 　　在销售总额中占比为30%的中国网上零售销售额恢复同比增长态势，而且中国大型购物商场的客流量为正常水平的70%，但中国的大型购物中心目前已经全面恢复营业。我们的亚洲技术分析师肖恩·金表示，中国智能手机销量呈现V型复苏态势，而且中国科技产品需求已经全面回升。但是，中国其他非必需消费品的支出仍然滞后。 　　预计中国的日用消费品企业（生产日用百货、家用电器和服装等）将在6月底前恢复正常运营。中国餐馆50%-80%的顾客基础已经恢复，但北京、上海、广州和深圳的夜生活场所仍然关闭，影院将一直关闭到6月初。我们的中国消费者分析师Lillian Lou预计，这些渠道将在6月底或7月初全面重新开放，而且人流量将在2020年第3季度恢复至正常水平。 　　最后一点需要注意的是：经济重启引发了人们对新冠疫情复发和经济可能出现双底衰退的担忧。我们欣然承认，我们对新冠病毒仍缺乏全面认识，而且我们确实预期将发生疫情复发情况。不过，分阶段重新开放、公共卫生当局的检测和追踪接触轨迹能力的有效提升、治疗和预防疾病的医学解决方案的发展态势以及人们的认知为降低新冠疫情复发的规模和范围提供了一定的保障。 　　英文原文： The Coronavirus Recession: Sharper But Shorter 　　Although first-quarter GDP data confirm that the U.S. and euro area are in recession, some signs out of China suggest a shorter-than-expected downturn. 　　The first-quarter GDP data released at the end of April for the U.S. and euro area officially confirm something we have known for some time: The global recession has started. However, my colleagues and I at Morgan Stanley Research believe that this downturn will be sharper—but shorter—than the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) that began in 2008. 　　Why is this our view? To begin with, recession was triggered by an exogenous shock, in the form of a public health crisis, instead of rising imbalances around the world, which is the typical basis of a recession. This downturn also didn’t start as a financial crisis, and the banking system is in better shape today than it was prior to the 2008 crisis. 　　Further, this recession has prompted the most coordinated and aggressive monetary and fiscal easing that we have witnessed in modern times. For China and the G4 regions—the U.S., euro area, Japan, the UK—fiscal deficits as a percentage of GDP will be 1.5 times their levels during the previous recession. Similarly, G4 central banks are aggressively expanding their balance sheets. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet will expand by 38 percentage points of GDP, more than the 20-percentage-point expansion during the Fed’s three stages of quantitative easing after 2008. 　　By our estimates, global economic contraction will trough at 7.5% in the second quarter of this year (far worse than the 2.4% contraction in the first quarter of 2009), while output—for the world as a whole and developed markets—will return to prerecession levels in 4 and 8 quarters, respectively, compared with 6 and 14 quarters after the GFC. 　　Optimistic Signposts 　　Let’s look at why we believe this recession may be shorter. Currently, a number of the high-frequency indicators we track suggest that the global economy is in the process of bottoming. Consumers’ future expectations have improved, mobility trends have moved up from their troughs, and consumer spending is contracting more slowly than in the early weeks of the outbreak. 　　In the U.S., our IT Services & Payments equity analyst, James Faucette, has pointed out that credit card transaction data indicates that both transactions and sales have picked up in the past two weeks. China’s economy bottomed in February, and we believe the euro area has likely troughed in April, with the U.S. following suit from late April. Other regions, such as Central & Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, should bottom out later. 　　We’re now seeing signs of a phased reopening in the U.S. and Europe. As economies reopen and more workers return to their jobs, mobility trends and production levels should further improve. In the U.S., some states have begun to reopen, and our U.S. economics and biotechnology teams estimate that 54% of the economy will be in a meaningful reopening phase by mid-May. This estimate assumes that states will be able to reopen 28 days after the peak in new confirmed coronavirus cases (Phase 2). European economies will also progressively reopen from early May onwards. 　　Uncertain Path to a New Normal 　　As we move toward a gradual reopening in parts of the world, we have been closely observing developments in China to see how various sectors of the economy are normalizing and how this experience may inform our outlook for the rest of the world. To be sure, our views are shaped by the path, but not the duration and magnitude, of recovery, considering the differences in the severity of the outbreak and the underlying composition of economic activity between the U.S., Europe and China. 　　In China’s case, the manufacturing, infrastructure and construction sectors recovered relatively quickly. Data suggest that manufacturing is back in expansionary territory, while property sales and demand for steel and cement are growing again in year-over-year terms, just 10 weeks after the peak in new cases. Supply-side disruptions have eased quickly, and production levels have experienced a V-shaped recovery. All of that suggests that the manufacturing sectors in the U.S. and Europe could be on a similar path after reopening. 　　All Eyes on Chinese Consumers 　　However, since the U.S. and Europe are more consumption-based economies, investors are closely watching Chinese consumer activity. Although the pace of recovery has varied across different segments, consumption in China is showing signs of progress. That said, the phased relaxation of social-distancing measures has dampened the overall pace. 　　Sales in China’s online retail channels, which account for 30% of total sales, are back in positive territory year-over-year, and traffic to shopping malls sits at 70% of normal levels, although malls are now fully open. Smartphone sales have seen a V-shaped recovery and demand for tech products has broadly improved, according to our Asia technology analyst, Shawn Kim. Yet, spending on other consumer discretionary products still lags. 　　China’s consumer goods companies—staples, home appliances and apparel—expect normalization, defined as back to normal levels of year-over-year growth, by the end of June. Restaurants have 50%-80% of their customer base back, but nightlife venues are still closed in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen; and cinemas will remain dark until early June. Our China consumer analyst, Lillian Lou, expects these channels to fully reopen by the end of June or beginning of July, and traffic to normalize in the third quarter of 2020. 　　One last note: The reopening of economies has prompted concerns about a second wave of infections and potential double dip in the economy. We readily admit that many unknowns concerning the virus remain, and we do expect additional waves of infections to occur. However, the phased reopening, scaling up of public-health authorities’ ability to test and contact-trace on a meaningful level, the development of medical solutions to treat and prevent the disease, and the awareness of the population at large offer some reassurance that we have a much better chance to reduce the size and scope of future outbreaks. 来源：摩根士丹利，作者：Chetan Ahya \t