摩根士丹利：美股将继续剧烈波动

摩根士丹利：美股将继续剧烈波动(2020.05.14) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：美国股市从2月底开始连续暴跌，但此后的反弹势头几乎同样惊人。熊市中期的反弹是意料之中的。美股虽然仍有一些存在机遇的领域，但也依然存在严重不确定性。目前美股面临三个关键问题：美国经济何时重启？消费者是否会恢复支出？全年企业盈利前景如何？投资者得到这三个问题的答案之前，美国股市很可能继续剧烈波动。 　　（外脑精华·北京）美股暴跌后反弹势头惊人 　　美国股市从2月底开始连续暴跌，但此后的反弹势头几乎同样惊人。美国大盘股基准指数标准普尔500指数先是暴跌34%，3月23日跌至2237点的低点之后，已回升了28%，收回了一半多跌幅。 　　然而，这并不意味着投资者现在就应该匆忙回归股市。熊市中期的反弹是意料之中的。美股虽然仍有一些存在机遇的领域（如金融股、小盘股、周期股和医疗股等领域），但也依然存在严重不确定性。 　　美股面临三大关键问题 　　目前美股面临三个关键问题。除非投资者最终得到了答案，否则美国股市很可能继续剧烈波动。 　　美国经济何时重启？保持经济活力与控制公共卫生风险之间的取舍犹如一种不良结果的囚徒困境。摩根士丹利生物科技研究小组认为，美国新增病例数将在5月中旬见顶；6月中旬开始逐渐重启经济。然而，这种前景能否成为现实，取决于病毒检测的进展。显然，这方面的进展落后于计划。 　　消费者是否会恢复支出？消费支出约占美国经济总量的三分之二；近期，失业、零售额和消费者情绪指标都比预期水平更糟糕。尽管美国采取了发放支票、延长失业福利、提供低息贷款等措施，但现在还不清楚，在取消社交隔离规定之后，大部分消费者是否仍会长期对消费支出持谨慎态度。 　　全年企业盈利前景如何？鉴于前两项未知因素，现在还很难准确预测2020年美国企业盈利状况。摩根士丹利研究部预计，今年的美国企业盈利将下跌20%，2020年年底标普500指数目标值为3000点。这一数值只比目前的价位高125点。如果复苏进程延迟、企业最终报告的盈利水平低于当前的预期，那么我们预测的目标价位就有可能无法实现。 　　投资意义 　　投资者对美股保持乐观的理由有很多。本轮反弹之前，投资者重返股市的条件已经出现，包括美股的低估值、政府实施的巨额经济刺激、以及疫情的发展态势。 　　我并不是建议回避美股，而是建议，恢复适合自己投资期限和风险承受度的资产配置。典型的平衡性证券组合通常为60%股票和40%债券。因此，即使投资者3月份没有卖出股票，要恢复平衡配置，也有必要在4月份买进股票。 　　我仍然推荐美元计价的均值产品，或是不考虑价格而定期买进美股（如每个月一次）。这种做法可以令你避免在股市大跌前过量买入的风险，而是可以在股票价格相对低廉时买进。在主动管理型基金和被动的指数基金之间，我推荐前者。前者意味着职业证券组合管理者可以帮你找出有投资机遇的特定领域，并避开潜在的风险。 　　股市的变化非常迅速，其原因在于不确定性仍居高不下。现在不应追逐股市波动的回报，而应坚持长期投资策略，以重建风险敞口，并利用市场波动为自己服务，现在是最适合这样做的时机。 　　英文原文： 3 Reasons You Shouldn’t Chase the Bear Market Rally 　　Stocks have staged a major rebound, but investors shouldn’t rush to buy the S&P 500 now. The market may have already come back too far, too fast. 　　As hard and fast as stocks fell starting in late February, the rebound of the past few weeks has been nearly as stunning. From a low of 2,237 on March 23, the S&P 500, a broad benchmark for large U.S. stocks, had gained 28%, retracing more than half of the original 34% decline. 　　That doesn’t mean investors should rush back in now, however. Rallies in the middle of bear markets are to be expected. While we still see areas of opportunity (in areas like financials, small caps, cyclicals and health care), a great deal of uncertainty remains. 　　Below are three key questions. Until investors have answers, markets are likely to remain volatile. 　　When will the economy reopen? We don’t know and the trade-offs between preserving economic vitality and risking the public health can feel like a prisoner’s dilemma with no good outcome. Morgan Stanley’s biotech research team sees a peak in U.S. cases in mid-May and gradual reopening starting in mid-June, but that is contingent on the availability of widespread testing and monitoring. Clearly, there could be setbacks and delays in this timetable. 　　Will consumers start spending? Roughly two-thirds of the economy is based on consumer spending and recent economic data has been even worse than expected in terms of unemployment, retail sales and consumer sentiment. Even with stimulus checks, extended unemployment benefits and low interest rate loans, it’s unclear whether the majority of consumers will remain cautious about their spending and behavior long after social distancing requirements have been lifted. 　　What will full-year corporate profits look like? Given the first two unknowns, it may be too early to forecast 2020 earnings with accuracy. Morgan Stanley Research estimates there will be a 20% earnings decline and has a year-end price target of 3000 for the S&P 500. That’s only 125 points above where we are now. If the recovery is delayed or reported profits are worse than currently modeled, that price target may not hold. 　　There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Even before the current rally took off, I wrote that it wasn’t too early for investors to return to stocks given the cheap valuations, huge amounts of government stimulus anticipated and likely trajectory of the pandemic. 　　I’m not suggesting now that you avoid stocks, but rather that you return your portfolio to the appropriate asset allocation for your time horizon and risk tolerance. A Financial Advisor can help you figure that out if you don’t know, but a typical balanced portfolio is made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Even if you didn’t sell stocks in March, you would have to buy them in April just to get back to target allocations. 　　I continue to recommend dollar-cost averaging, or buying stocks at consistent intervals (say, once a month) regardless of price. That allows you to avoid the risk of putting a lot of money into the market just before a dip while reinvesting when stocks may still be relatively cheap. I also recommend favoring actively managed funds over passive index funds. That way, professional portfolio managers can help identify specific areas of opportunity and avoid potential pitfalls. 　　Markets have moved very far, very fast given still high levels of uncertainty. Rather than chasing those returns, now is most likely the time to stick with a longer term strategy to rebuild your exposure to risk while using volatility to your advantage. 来源：摩根士丹利，作者：Lisa Shalet \t