摩根士丹利：疫情见顶之后的美国经济重启之路

摩根士丹利：疫情见顶之后的美国经济重启之路(2020.05.14) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：新冠疫情急性爆发之后的美国经济恢复期才刚刚开始。经济重启进程很可能需要相当长时间，直到疫苗问世才能最终结束，而疫苗最早也要到2021年春季才能研制成功。摩根士丹利预计，美国经济2季度将折年率暴跌38%，而3季度的经济反弹力度将弱于前期预期；经济活动在2021年末之前无望重回疫情爆发前的水平。 　　（外脑精华·北京）“这不是结束，甚至不是结束的开始，但这也许是开始的结束。”这是1942年丘吉尔首相在英军赢得阿拉曼战役之后的感言。这句名言或许也可以描述全球社会抗疫之战的现状。 　　摩根士丹利生物科技大盘股团队的分析显示，新冠疫情急性爆发之后的经济恢复期才刚刚开始，而不是结束。我们认为，经济重启之路很可能需要相当长时间。重启经济需要运用多种形式的社交隔离措施，直到疫苗问世才能最终结束，而疫苗最早也要到2021年春季才能研制成功。 　　美国疫情将长期持续 　　随着意大利每日新增确诊病例开始下降，市场关注的焦点开始转向美国。近期，纽约每日新增确诊病例数开始企稳。尽管我们理解市场和公众对形势好转的期待，但我们认为，美国的疫情还远没有结束。 　　为分析美国的疫情防控状况，我们最近构建了美国疫情走势的州级模型。该模型显示，美国各地区疫情将分阶段见顶。以纽约州为首的沿海地区疫情在4月中下旬见顶，但其他地区的跟进步伐将较为缓慢，大约比沿海地区落后3周。 　　尽管我们的模型显示的“疫情第二顶点”不大可能像第一个顶点那样严重（每日新增病例数将在1～1.5万之间，大大低于第一个顶点的3～3.5万之间），但这意味着，美国疫情将持续很久。 　　疫情的长期持续意味着，美国疫情见顶所需的时间约为中国的4倍和意大利的2倍，原因包括社会隔离措施推进缓慢，以及有效检测手段的缺失。 　　目前纽约的检测率在美国位居第一，但仍只有韩国疫情最重城市大邱的一半。据此数据来看，我们认为美国至早也要到5月中下旬才能开始重启经济。 　　重启经济并非易事 　　然而，美国重启经济不会是轻松而直接的过程。可信的复工必要条件包括：医院急诊能力充足；公共卫生系统能够支持新热点地区的充足检测能力；通过有效的接触追踪来避免形成新热点地区；进行大范围血清测试的能力。 　　复工进程很可能会从夏季开始，分波次推进。但我们认为，在疫苗实现充足供应之前，大量员工无法复工，因为在实现群体免疫（约60%人口接种疫苗）之前，美国无法完全解除社交隔离。而且，体育场馆、音乐厅和主题公园等大型聚会场所很可能也会继续关闭，或人流量处于低位（疫情之前水平的10～25%左右）。 　　鉴于上述判断，即美国疫情缓慢见顶以及复工进程迟缓，摩根士丹利美国经济分析组下调了美国经济增速预期值。他们预计，美国经济2季度将折年率暴跌38%，而3季度的经济反弹力度将弱于前期预期；经济活动在2021年末之前无望重回疫情爆发前的水平。 　　政府应加紧推进疫苗产能建设 　　疫苗是本次疫情的唯一真正有效对策。因此，政府应积极采取行动，投资于疫苗的大规模制造，甚至应该抢在所有候选疫苗取得有效成果之前进行。只有现在就建立足够的产能，政府才能满足2021年所需的数十亿疫苗剂量。 　　尽管如此，在疫苗产能建成之前，美国有望推出可信的反病毒和抗体疗法。我们认为，至少部分药物能取得成功，从而帮助缓解重症患者的病情。 　　这种局面将缓解医院的压力，使得公共卫生部门可以支持在疫苗面世前重启经济。因此，鉴于短期内疗法的进展以及未来疫苗的供应，市场或许可以开始预期美国经济的缓慢复苏，并重新在资产价格中反映未来的经济增长。 　　英文原文： After the Coronavirus Peak, What’s Next? 　　As the growth in new cases of infection appears to be slowing in some hard-hit regions, what comes next? A look at what needs to happen before the world can “reopen.” 　　“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning,” Winston Churchill famously said in 1942, after a key victory for Allied forces. That may be a fairly apt description of where the global community stands right now in our fight against the coronavirus pandemic. 　　My primary role at Morgan Stanley is equity research on large cap Biotech companies but, since the outbreak began, my team and I have also been tracking the spread and management of the virus, modeling Europe, U.S. and the Asia-Pacific region, and tracking variables, such as reproduction rate, doubling time and testing coverage. 　　Our analysis has found that recovery from this acute period in the outbreak is just the beginning and not the end. We believe the path to reopening the economy will likely take time. It will require turning on and off various forms of social distancing and will only come to an end when vaccines are available, in the spring of 2021 at the earliest. 　　The Path Forward 　　As the growth in new daily cases has started to decline in Italy, markets have turned their attention to the U.S. Over the past 10 days it has been striking to see how investors and the public at-large have reacted to the first signs that new COVID-19 cases in New York are beginning to stabilize. And while we understand the desire for optimism, we also caution that the U.S. outbreak is far from over. 　　To analyze management of the coronavirus in the U.S., we recently completed a state-level model that suggests a multiphasic peak. In particular, we expect the coastal regions, led by New York, to peak in mid- to late-April. However, we expect the rest of the country to follow slowly, trailing the coasts by around three weeks. 　　While this “second peak” is unlikely to be as severe as the first (roughly 10,000-15,000 new cases daily vs. 30,000-35,000 in the first peak), it means that the U.S. outbreak will have a very long tail. 　　This much longer tail would put the total U.S. time to peak at about four times that of China and twice as long as in Italy, driven by the slow uptake of social-distancing measures and lack of robust testing. 　　New York currently has the highest testing ratio in the U.S., yet is still testing at a per capita rate just half that of South Korea’s most impacted city, Daegu. Based on the data, we believe an initial U.S. reopening is on track for mid- to late-May at the earliest. 　　The Return to Normalcy 　　It’s important to stress that this won’t be an easy or direct reopening. A confident “return to work” can only happen after we see: 　　1. Adequate surge capacity in hospitals; 2. Broad public health infrastructure to support testing to catch new hot spots early; 3. Robust contact tracing to curtail those “hot spots”; 4. Widespread availability of serology testing (blood tests to see who is already immune to the virus). 　　The process of returning to work will likely happen in waves, starting in the summer. Unfortunately, we think a large number of workers still won’t be able to return to work until a vaccine is abundantly available, since social distancing can’t be fully relaxed until we have herd immunity (meaning about 60% of the population has been vaccinated). Furthermore, large venues, such as sports stadiums, concert halls and theme parks, are also likely to remain shut or have attendance capped at 10%-25% of prior levels. 　　Based on this view of the delayed peak and slow return to work, our U.S. economists have revised their U.S. growth forecasts. As my colleague Ellen Zentner, Chief U.S. Economist, writes, “After a 38% annualized drop in growth in the second quarter of 2020, we now see a shallower rebound in the third quarter, and we do not see activity returning to its pre-virus level until the end of 2021.” 　　Progress on Vaccines 　　As I stated previously, only a vaccine can provide a true solution to this pandemic. Toward this goal, governments will need to be proactive, investing in large-scale vaccine manufacturing, even before we see successful results for all viable vaccine candidates—even if some of those candidates don’t ultimately make it to market. Only by building production capacity now can governments provide the billions of vaccine doses we will need to meet demand for the 2021 season. 　　That said, in the interim, promising antivirals and antibody therapies are in the pipeline, with data starting in April and continuing through the late summer. We believe that at least some of these drugs can be successful and help to turn severe cases into milder forms of the disease. 　　Such an outcome could reduce the potential strain on hospitals and allow public-health officials to support a broader reopening of the economy before a vaccine is available. Thus, with therapeutics available in the near term and a vaccine on the horizon, the market could start to “look through” the slow U.S. recovery and back to pricing in future growth. 来源：摩根士丹利，作者：Matthew Harrison \t