Markit：出口滑坡打击韩国经济

Markit：出口滑坡打击韩国经济(2020.06.02) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：韩国经济高度依赖出口；由于其众多关键出口市场陷入经济衰退，因而韩国对这些市场的出口暴跌，对其经济构成沉重打击。4月份和5月初的出口数据显示，2季度韩国的出口滑坡正在加剧。鉴于2020年美国、欧盟和日本经济都将陷入深度衰退，短期内韩国出口部门面临着严重阻力。2020年末到2021年间，随着世界经济逐渐复苏，韩国出口也将逐渐回升。 　　（外脑精华·北京）4月份到5月初，韩国颇为成功地控制了新冠肺炎新增病例数。然而，韩国经济高度依赖出口；由于其众多关键出口市场陷入经济衰退，因而韩国对这些市场的出口暴跌，对其经济构成沉重打击。4月份和5月初的出口数据显示，2季度韩国的出口滑坡正在加剧。 　　鉴于2020年美国、欧盟和日本经济都将陷入深度衰退，短期内韩国出口部门面临着严重阻力。2020年末到2021年间，随着主要经济体分步解除封城，世界经济逐渐复苏，韩国出口也将逐渐回升。 　　疫情重创经济增长 　　鉴于新冠疫情对国内需求和出口的影响日益加剧，韩国GDP在2020年1季度环比下降1.4%，但同比仍增长1.3%。相比之下，2019年GDP同比增长2.0%。 　　尽管3月份韩国国内新增新冠病例有所上升，但在食品和家居用品等必需品在线销售强劲增长的帮助下，韩国零售额仍保持弹性。根据韩国贸易工业和能源部的零售数据，韩国3月份的线上和线下零售额同比下降了3.3%，实体店的销售额同比下降了17.6%，而在线零售商的销售额同比增长了16.9%，食品的在线销售额增长了75%，家居用品的在线销售额增长了75%增加33%。 　　韩国央行货币政策委员会在4月份的会议上评估，2020年GDP增长率将大大低于其2020年2月预测的2.1%，未来GDP增长路径的不确定性也非常高。韩国央行在3月份的会议上已将政策利率下调了50个基点，以缓解因大流行病而引发的金融市场波动，并减少对未来增长和通胀的影响。 　　出口下降打击制造业 　　2020年2季度，韩国制造业继续受到全球大流行病的影响，制造业产出和新订单影响显著。IHS韩国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）从3月份的44.2降至4月份的41.6，这表明随着制造业采购经理人指数降至全球金融危机以来的最低水平，制造业面临的经营状况加剧恶化。 　　最新的PMI调查数据继续凸显全球新冠疫情升级带来的负面经济影响。由于国内外工厂关闭，韩国制造商的新订单大幅下降。新生产的总收入以2009年1月以来的最快速度下降。最新数据显示，对新出口业务的影响也很严重。来自国外的新订单以16年来最快的速度下降。调查显示，欧洲和北美的停产严重影响了汽车相关产品的需求。 　　2季度出口下滑加剧 　　根据韩国贸易、工业和能源部4月份的贸易数据，韩国4月份的出口与去年同期相比下降了24.3%。经济下滑反映出对美国和欧盟等主要市场的出口急剧下降。4月份，韩国对美出口同比下降13.5%，对欧盟出口同比下降12.8%，韩国对亚洲市场出口也受到严重影响，对中国出口同比下降17.9%，对东盟出口同比下降32.9%。 　　据韩国海关总署公布的5月上旬出口数据显示，5月份出口下滑加剧，韩国出口同比下降46.3%，其中半导体出口同比下降17.8%，手机出口同比下降35.9%，石化产品出口下降同比下降75.6%。 　　电子和汽车工业受创严重 　　由于电子产品是韩国最重要的出口行业，该行业受到了全球电子产品产量和需求封锁的严重影响。在全球范围内，广泛采取旨在遏制新冠疫情传播的封锁措施之际，全球对电子产品的需求在4月份蒸发。 　　IHS全球电子产品PMI从3月份的48.6降至4月份的43.3，表明电子产品制造商面临的商业状况急剧恶化。事实上，最新数据显示，这是2009年4月以来的最快降幅，在全球新冠疫情爆发之际，许多企业暂时关闭，新订单降幅为2009年1月以来最快。 　　韩国4月份信息和通信技术（ICT）产品出口同比下降15%。由于全球对存储芯片和系统半导体的需求下降，半导体出口同比下降15%。显示器出口额同比下降28%，而手机出口额同比下降37%，原因是全球零售商店普遍停业打击了新订单。 　　韩国汽车业也受到全球疫情升级的严重影响。4月份，韩国汽车出口环比收缩36.3%，反映出美国、欧盟以及其他主要市场停产的影响。这导致了大量的汽车工厂停产以及许多汽车经销商的关闭，扰乱了全球汽车生产和许多关键市场的汽车销售。 　　经济前景 　　在3月疫情急剧升级后，韩国政府在4月和5月初控制国内新冠疫情方面取得了相当大的成功，尽管5月中旬在首尔发现了新的病例群。4月和5月初，新的新冠疫情数量较低，与经合组织长期封锁的许多其他主要经济体相比，使得家庭在商店和餐馆的消费模式相对正常。 　　尽管韩国国内需求强劲，但由于美国和欧盟等主要出口市场深度衰退对韩国出口行业造成严重负面冲击，韩国经济在2020年仍面临衰退状况。 　　然而，随着未来几个月欧洲和美国的封锁放松，这将使韩国制造业出口订单在2020年下半年至2021年逐步恢复。随着主要汽车市场的汽车经销商和汽车工厂全面重新开业，2020年下半年，汽车新订单将逐步增加。在欧盟和美国重新开放购物中心和商店将有助于提振对韩国电子产品的需求。 　　韩国制造业出口订单的恢复将有助于增强国内需求的势头改善，使2021年国内生产总值恢复正增长。 　　英文原文： COVID-19: South Korean economy hit by slumping exports 　　South Korea has achieved considerable success in containing the number of new COVID-19 cases during April and early May. However, its highly export-driven economy has been hit by shockwaves from slumping exports as many of its key export markets slide into recession. South Korean export data for April and early May indicate a worsening downturn for exports during the second quarter of 2020. 　　With deep recessions forecast for the US, EU and Japan in 2020, the South Korean export sector faces severe headwinds in the near-term, although a gradual recovery in exports is expected in late 2020 and during 2021 as the world economy gradually recovers from the impact of lockdowns in many of the world’s largest economies. 　　GDP growth weakens in early 2020 as impact of pandemic intensifies 　　Reflecting the intensifying impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on domestic demand and exports, South Korean GDP recorded a contraction of 1.4% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in Q1 2020, albeit still recording an increase of 1.3% year-on-year (y/y). This compared with GDP growth of 2.0% y/y for calendar year 2019. 　　Despite the escalation in domestic new COVID-19 cases during March, South Korean retail sales remained resilient, helped by strong growth in online sales of essential items such as food and household goods. According to retail sales data from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, South Korea’s online and offline retail sales in March saw a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% y/y. Brick-and-mortar stores experienced a sales decrease of 17.6% y/y, while sales at online retailers grew by 16.9% y/y. Online sales of food rose by 75% and household goods by 33%. 　　In their April meeting, the Bank of Korea (BOK) Monetary Policy Board assessed that GDP growth will fall considerably below their February 2020 forecast of 2.1% for 2020, and that uncertainties around the future path of GDP growth are also very high. The BOK had lowered the policy rate by 50bps at their March meeting, to ease volatility in financial markets that had arisen due to the pandemic and reduce the effects on future growth and inflation. 　　Manufacturing sector hit by declining exports 　　In Q2 2020, South Korea’s manufacturing sector has continued to be hit by the impact of the global pandemic on manufacturing output and new orders. The IHS Markit South Korea Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 41.6 in April, from 44.2 in March, signalling an intensifying deterioration of business conditions faced by manufacturers as the index fell to its lowest level since the global financial crisis. 　　The latest PMI survey data continued to highlight the negative economic impact from the escalating global COVID-19 pandemic. New orders placed with South Korean manufacturers fell substantially as a result of factory closures both domestically and overseas. Total intakes of new work fell at the strongest pace since January 2009. The impact on new export business was also severe, according to the latest data. New orders from abroad fell at the sharpest rate recorded in 16 years of data collection. The survey indicated that shutdowns in Europe and North America had severely impacted demand for automobile-related products. 　　Export slump deepens in second quarter of 2020 　　According to April trade data from the South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, South Korean exports in April fell 24.3% compared to the same period a year earlier. The downturn reflected a sharp decline in exports to key markets such as the US and EU. In April, South Korean exports to the US fell by 13.5% y/y, while exports to the EU declined by 12.8% y/y. South Korean exports to Asian markets were also severely impacted, with exports to China dropping by 17.9% y/y and exports to ASEAN down 32.9% y/y. 　　The export slump has worsened in May, according to early data for exports covering the first ten days of May released by the Korea Customs Service, with South Korean exports falling by 46.3% y/y. For that period, exports of semiconductors were down by 17.8% y/y, exports of mobile telephones fell by 35.9% y/y while exports of petrochemical products fell by 75.6% y/y. 　　South Korean Electronics and Auto Sectors hit by global demand slump 　　With electronics being South Korea’s most important export sector, the industry has been badly hit by the impact of lockdowns on both global electronics output as well as demand. Amid widespread global lockdown measures designed to stem the spread of the coronavirus, world demand for electronic goods evaporated in April. 　　The IHS Markit Global Electronics PMI registered 43.3 in April, down from 48.6 in March, to signal a sharp deterioration in business conditions faced by electronics manufacturers. In fact, the latest reading pointed to the fastest decline since April 2009, with many businesses temporarily closed amid the global COVID-19 outbreak New orders fell at the fastest pace since January 2009. 　　South Korean exports of information and communications technology (ICT) goods in April fell by 15% y/y compared to a year earlier. Exports of semiconductors decreased 15% y/y, due to declining global demand for memory chips and system semiconductors. The value of display exports fell 28% y/y, while the value of mobile phones exported fell 37% y/y, as widespread global retail store lockdowns hit new orders. 　　The South Korean auto sector has also been badly impacted by the escalating global pandemic. South Korean automobile exports contracted 36.3% y/y in April, reflecting the impact of lockdowns in the US, EU as well as other key markets. These have resulted in significant auto plant shutdowns as well as closure of many auto dealerships disrupting both global auto production and auto sales in many key markets. 　　Economic outlook 　　The South Korean government had considerable success in containing the number of domestic COVID-19 cases during April and early May, following a steep escalation during March, albeit a new cluster was identified in Seoul in mid-May. Reflecting the low number of new COVID-19 cases in April and early May, this has allowed a relatively normal pattern of household consumer spending in stores and restaurants compared with many other major economies in the OECD that have faced protracted lockdowns. 　　Despite the resilience of domestic demand, the South Korean economy is facing recessionary conditions in 2020 due to the severe negative shocks to its export sector from deep recessions in key export markets such as the US and EU. 　　However, as lockdowns ease in Europe and the US in coming months, this should allow a gradual recovery in export orders for South Korea’s manufacturing industry in the latter part of 2020 and into 2021. As auto dealerships and auto plants fully reopen in major auto markets, new orders for autos should gradually strengthen during the second half of 2020. Reopening of shopping malls and stores in the EU and US will help to boost for demand for South Korean electronics products. 　　The recovery in export orders for Korean manufacturing will help to reinforce improving momentum from domestic demand, allowing a return to positive GDP growth for the 2021 calendar year. 来源：Markit，作者：Rajiv Biswas \t