彼德森国际经济研究所：新冠疫情促使美国居民储蓄率上升

彼德森国际经济研究所：新冠疫情促使美国居民储蓄率上升(2020.06.02) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：新冠疫情期间，美国联邦政府向当前局势下无力或不会倾力消费的中低收入居民提供现金。因此，今年美国个人净储蓄率将创下二战以来的新高。这笔巨额储蓄的经济意义尚不明晰，但这可能意味着，随着在疫情防控措施的放宽，未来几个月美国的总需求将会上升，进而推动经济加速复苏。然而，在需求超过供给情况下，这将引发通胀率暂时上升。鉴于近年来美国通胀率持续低于目标水平，通胀率上升有利于美联储的政策操作。 　　（外脑精华·北京）新冠疫情期间，美国联邦政府向当前紧张局势下无力或不会倾力消费的大量美国家庭提供现金。因此，今年美国个人净储蓄率将创下二战以来的新高。这笔巨额储蓄的经济意义尚不明晰，但这可能意味着，随着在未来几个月中对商业和个人活动的限制放宽，美国的总需求将会上升，进而推动经济加速复苏。然而，在需求超过供给情况下，将引发通胀率暂时上升。 　　通胀率的升幅可能将处于温和水平，而且鉴于美国通胀率在近年中持续低于目标水平，美国通胀率上升将是可喜的发展态势。这甚至可能会为美联储提供依照我之前所提建议略微调高通胀目标的一个良好机会。 　　诚然，由于餐馆、零售店、旅游景点、剧院和许多其他企业被迫关闭，新冠疫情和近几周的美国卫生政策反应导致美国私人消费支出出现空前下滑，同是导致必须继续工作的美国民众（包括抗疫人员）的面临的风险上升。大萧条以来的最高失业率造成许多美国家庭的生计陷入停顿，许多美国民众担心如何支付食物和房租。在我们公司举行的一次视频活动中，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，在2月份美国从业人员中，几乎40%的从年收入低于4万美元的从业人员在3月份期间失业。如果企业被迫永久关闭，危害可能将长期持续。 　　虽然处于这种情况，许多美国家庭（或许是多数家庭）将得到失业救济金和现金转移，这将有效推动美国家庭部门银行存款额的增长和其他储蓄全面增长。当经济复苏时，美国家庭部门将会如何处理储蓄尚不得而知（是会重新开始消费，还是会更加谨慎地继续储蓄）。 　　疫情与对策的经济影响 　　衡量经济活动最广泛的指标美国GDP在今年1季度略降，在2季度可能将大幅下降。多数预测显示美国经济将在下半年出现一定程度的复苏，而美国GDP在2021年初期间仍将远低于之前的水平 　　美国国会批准的财政方案将促使美国联邦赤字增至二战以来的最高水平。多数援助项目都是针对年收入低于15万美元的美国家庭。许多美国个人和家庭仍在等待进行付款，或是可能没有意识到其具有资格获得援助，而无证工人和即将毕业的学生将无法获得太多帮助。但多数美国家庭应在6月底之前得到联邦援助资金。以前收入低于工资中位数的美国失业人员除可获得1200美元经济刺激消费补贴外，还将获得超过其先前工资的失业救济金，可以领取失业救济金的最长期限为4个月。 　　私人储蓄将大幅上升 　　提供增加国债来为支持这些转移是在维系人民和企业生活方面的非常值得付出的一个代价。美国国会预算办公室预计，2020年和2021年美国联邦预算赤字总额将增长3.7万亿美元。转移支付额的增长以及私人消费支出降幅和个人收入降幅的基本持平意味着美国私人储蓄额的激增。与此同时，随着收入下降和企业通过新的联邦贷款计划来借款，美国企业的储蓄额也在下降。因而，美国家庭部门将直接体会到私人储蓄的增长。 　　预计美国私人储蓄净额/美国GDP的占比在今年2季度和3季度期间将飙升至约22%，到2021年中期将降至约15%左右，而且在2022年年末仍将维持在10%以上。除在2008～2010年全球金融危机后的一个短暂期外，直至2019年，美国私人储蓄率在30多年中一直低于10%。人口增速持续下降导致美国私人储蓄率长期呈下降趋势，体现在建筑业、办公室和工厂的用工需求下降。 　　由于预测人士已经开始预计美国经济将于今年下半年和2021年初期间出现一定程度的复苏，美国国会中的民主党议员已经提出一项的财政刺激方案，其规模相当于此前推出的各项刺激方案的总和，以便在未来1年中扶持美国家庭部门、小型企业以及州和地方政府。目前尚不清楚还会出台哪些新的财政措施。但任何新的财政转移都将会推动美国私人储蓄率攀升。 　　通胀率提升有利于美联储政策操作 　　通胀率的升降取决于总需求和总供给之间的平衡状况。强制关闭企业抑制了总供给，而居家令则造成总需求下降。对未来前景的担忧也抑制了美国消费者的需求。需求崩溃对价格尤其是能源价格构成下行压力。 　　随着限制措施的放宽，美国商品和服务的供应将会恢复政策，但诸如与大型集会（如体育活动、戏剧、音乐活动和游乐园）有关的一些美国企业可能在2020年和2021年期间的大部分时间中将会面临限制。虽然长期以来，需求可能会偏离这些行业以及酒店和旅游业等其他行业，但总需求的主要制约因素可能是未来收入的不确定性。 　　不过，这种不祥的不确定性可能会被美国私人储蓄增长的积极影响所抵消。IHS Markit公司在5月9日发布的预测显示，2020年至2022年期间美国私人储蓄净额将自2019年4季度的水平增长约3.5万亿美元，到2022年年末，美国每个家庭的储蓄额将增长将2.5万美元。如果按家庭成员平均分配，美国中等家庭所持金融资产的总额将比2016年的2.35万美元翻了一番。因而，美国家庭部门银行存款的增长缓解未来收入存在不确定性问题，进而推动美国消费支出的增长。 　　如果供应继续受限，消费支出的增长可能将推动美国通胀率上升。但如果美国失业率居高不下，而且可能将促使从人员从萎缩行业转向增长行业，美国经济增长复苏的速度可能将超过预期，同时美国通胀率也将会适度上升。这将是一种理想的结果。实际上，美联储有充足理由来适度提升通胀目标通胀率。如果通胀率升幅超过预期，美联储可以从容通过收紧货币政策和上调利率来使其通胀目标将至原有水平。 　　英文原文： The 2020 US private saving boom: An unexpected result of COVID-19 　　Federal cash transfers in the COVID-19 pandemic are going to millions of American families who cannot or will not spend all of that money in the current fraught environment. As a result, the US net private saving rate in 2020 will be the highest since World War II. The economic significance of this large amount of savings is unclear. But it could mean that, as restrictions on business and personal activities are relaxed in coming months, aggregate demand will rise, accelerating economic recovery but causing a temporary uptick in inflation to the extent that demand exceeds aggregate supply. 　　Any rise in inflation likely would be mild and would be welcome in light of persistent shortfalls of inflation below target in recent years. It might even provide a good opportunity for the Federal Reserve to adopt a slightly higher inflation target as Chris Collins and I previously recommended. 　　To be sure, the COVID-19 pandemic and the health policy response in recent weeks have caused an unprecedented collapse in private consumption as restaurants, retail outlets, tourist attractions, theaters, and a host of other businesses have been forced to close, while increasing the risk to those who must remain at work, including those battling the pandemic on the front lines. The worst unemployment rate since the Great Depression has put the livelihoods of vast numbers of American families on hold, with many worried about how to pay for food and rent. At a PIIE virtual event, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that, among people who were working in February, almost 40 percent of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March. The damage may be long lasting if businesses are forced to close permanently. 　　Despite these circumstances, it is also true that many American families, perhaps most, will be receiving unemployment benefits and cash transfers that will meaningfully increase their bank balances and other savings more generally. What they do with their savings when a recovery occurs—whether they will go back to spending or be more cautious and continue to save—is unknown. 　　ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF COVID-19 AND THE POLICY RESPONSE 　　US GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity, declined modestly in the first quarter of 2020 and will likely plunge in the second quarter. Most forecasts call for a partial rebound in the second half of the year, with GDP remaining well below its previous trend at the beginning of 2021.[1] 　　The fiscal packages approved by Congress will increase the federal deficit to a level not seen since World War II. Most of the aid is directed at households earning less than $150,000 per year.[2] Many individuals and families are still waiting for their payments or may not realize that they qualify for aid, while undocumented workers and students about to graduate will not get much help. But most households should receive federal aid before the end of June. Unemployed workers who previously earned less than the median wage will receive unemployment benefits that exceed their previous wages for up to four months in addition to receiving $1,200 stimulus checks.[3] 　　IMPLICATIONS FOR PRIVATE SAVING 　　The increase in the national debt to support these transfers is a price well worth paying to sustain the lives of people and businesses. The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a $3.7 trillion increase in the federal budget deficit in 2020 and 2021 combined. The increased transfers and a drop in private consumption nearly as large as the drop in private income imply a massive increase in private saving. At the same time, corporate savings are falling as revenues decline and companies borrow through the new federal lending programs. Thus, households will directly experience more than the entire increase in private saving. 　　The figure shows the history of US net private saving (in percent of GDP) as well as its projected values in 2020 through 2022 based on the May 9 projections of IHS Markit.[4] The private saving rate soars to around 22 percent in 2020Q2–Q3, declines to around 15 percent through the middle of 2021, and remains above 10 percent through the end of 2022.[5] Except for a brief period after the global financial crisis of 2008–10, the private saving rate was below 10 percent for more than 30 years through 2019. Declining population growth permanently reduced the trend saving rate, reflecting less need to build houses, offices, and factories to accommodate additional workers. 　　Figure Private saving is soaring and may remain high through 2022 　　As forecasters have come to expect a less-than-complete recovery in the second half of 2020 and early 2021, Democrats in Congress have proposed a new fiscal package as large as the previous packages combined to support households, small businesses, and state and local governments over the next year or so. It is not clear what additional fiscal measures, if any, will be enacted. But any additional fiscal transfers would boost the private saving rate above the level shown in the figure. 　　IMPLICATIONS FOR INFLATION 　　Inflation moves up or down depending on the balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Enforced business closures restrict aggregate supply, while stay-at-home orders also reduce aggregate demand. Anxiety about the future is also depressing consumer demand. The collapse in demand is putting downward pressure on prices—especially energy prices. 　　As restrictions ease, supply of goods and services will resume, though some businesses, such as those related to large gatherings such as sports, theater, and music events and amusement parks, may face restrictions for most of 2020 and perhaps 2021. Although demand is likely to be skewed away from these and other sectors such as hotels and tourism for a long time, the main restraint on aggregate demand is likely to be uncertainty about future income. 　　That ominous uncertainty could be countered by the buildup of private savings, however. Based on the May 9 IHS Markit projection, net private savings in 2020 through 2022 will cumulate to around $3.5 trillion higher than if they had remained at their 2019Q4 level, representing more than $25,000 per US household in additional savings by the end of 2022. If distributed equally across households,[6] that would more than double the $23,500 in financial assets held by the median household as of 2016 (Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances). Accordingly, an increase in family bank balances could allay the uncertainty over future income and support more consumption. 　　Increased consumption spending may cause inflation to rise if supply restrictions linger. But if the unemployment rate remains high and it is possible to shift workers from shrinking sectors to growing sectors, economic growth could rebound faster than projected, accompanied by moderately higher inflation. That outcome would be desirable. Indeed, there are strong grounds for a moderately higher target rate of inflation. Should inflation increase by more than is desired, the Federal Reserve can easily tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates to get back to its inflation goal. 来源：彼德森国际经济研究所，作者：Joseph E. Gagnon \t