经济学人：埃及经济危机凸显阿拉伯非产油国的困境

经济学人：埃及经济危机凸显阿拉伯非产油国的困境(2020.05.28) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：面对疫情，力量不足的埃及并没有尝试实行严格封城。然而，宽松的疫情防控并未让埃及逃过经济危机。该国私人经济部门正在急剧下滑：采购经理指数创下历史新低，新出口订单跌势迅猛，旅游业遭受重创。目前，埃及已经对外寻求援助。埃及或许是面临这种困境的第一个阿拉伯国家，但阿拉伯其他非产油国未来几个月也将面临类似问题。 　　（外脑精华·北京）埃及首都开罗人口超过大多数国家的总人口，这里本来就没有多大希望实施社交隔离。不同于很多其他阿拉伯国家，埃及没有尝试实行严格封城。该国虽然实行了宵禁，并关闭了餐厅和咖啡厅等人流大的场所。但公共交通、工厂和商店都继续运营。 　　到目前为止，埃及避免了毁灭性的疫情暴发。在这个1亿人口的国家中，到5月21日的累计确诊病例数约为1.4万人。据估算，目前埃及每周仅检测约3万人（政府未公布准确数字）。可信度较高的死亡人数为不到7人/百万人口，低于一些富有的海湾国家，更不用说英国（超过500人/百万人口）等疫情严重的国家。 　　难逃经济危机 　　然而，宽松的疫情防控并未让埃及逃过经济危机。该国私人经济部门正在急剧下滑：采购经理指数由3月份的44.2跌至4月份的29.7，创下历史新低。新出口订单跌势更猛。持续多年的政治动荡和财政紧缩已经令埃及国民生活艰难。目前，埃及缺乏财力，已经对外寻求援助。埃及或许是面临这种困境的第一个阿拉伯国家，但阿拉伯其他非产油国未来几个月也将面临类似问题。 　　首先受到打击的是旅游业，其就业人口占全国就业人口的十分之一。2019年外国游客为埃及旅游业创造了130亿美元收入，为该国GDP的5%左右。随着机场关闭，旅游业收入已经归零。目前，旅馆已经向国内游客重新开放，但他们的开支远少于外国游客。 　　一个令人担忧的大问题是埃及的340万海外劳工。2019年埃及接受的海外汇款总额达270亿美元，位居全球第五，约为其GDP的9%。现在还难以判断海外汇款的降幅，但据世行估算，今年全球汇款总量将下降20%。埃及海外劳工的一半以上在海湾诸国工作，而油价大跌已经导致了大范围降薪和裁员。 　　甚至可为埃及提供50-60亿美元年通行费的苏伊士运河也可能遭受打击。满载的油轮缴纳的通行费接近100万美元。它们支付这笔费用是为避免绕行数千英里。然而，低油价意味着燃料价格随之大跌，而全球需求疲软则意味着船只并不急于到达目的地。 　　亟需外部融资 　　2011年政局剧变以来，埃及外汇储备暴跌，到今年2月曾回升至450亿美元，如今再次下降，到4月底已降至370亿美元。评级机构惠誉预计，埃及外汇储备到年底将下降到310亿美元，而经常账户赤字-GDP比率则将由去年3.6%升至5.3%。 　　据银行界估算，埃及至少需要100亿美元外部融资。去年完成的3年期IMF项目将其财政赤字-GDP比率由3年前的12%降至8%。目前，IMF已批准28亿美元紧急贷款，50亿美元长期贷款的项目正在谈判之中。 　　尽管如此，埃及财力依然不足以支持处境艰难的国民。埃及央行已经拨出500亿镑（约合32亿美元）软贷款支持旅游业，还款期为两年，而旅游公司认为，该行业要复苏至少需要两年时间。非正式工人创造了该国GDP的一半左右，目前他们大多无所事事。政府承诺连续3个月每月向他们发放500镑，但这还不到周平均工资的一半。 　　埃及商业正在滑坡。很多大公司表示1季度销售疲软，而1季度仅包括疫情暴发的最初几周。汽车公司GB Auto的销售收入同比下跌4.1%；食品公司Edita的利润同比暴跌44%。 　　并非个例 　　其他阿拉伯国家也将面临同样的问题。虽然埃及旅游收入的绝对值很大，但突尼斯、黎巴嫩和约旦旅游业收入在GDP中的占比更高。后两国还严重依赖海外汇款，而三国的长期信用等级都低于埃及，尤其是黎巴嫩3月份已经对债务违约。埃及及早向IMF求助是明智之举，其邻国也即将跟进。 　　英文原文： Egypt chose a looser lockdown. Its economy is still cratering 　　There was never much chance of social distancing in Cairo, a city more populous than most countries. Buses fill to overflowing, passengers dangling out of open doors. Millions live in informal settlements with streets barely wide enough for a sedan. And indeed, unlike many other Arab countries, Egypt did not try to impose a strict lockdown. There is a night-time curfew; busy spaces like restaurants and cafés are shut. But public transport is running, factories are humming and shops keep at least limited opening hours. 　　So far, Egypt has dodged a devastating outbreak. Confirmed cases－about 14,000 on May 21st, in a country of 100m－are an unreliable measure. Data suggest the government is testing only about 30,000 people a week （it does not release exact figures）. Some Egyptians who test positive are told that relatives living in the same house cannot be swabbed unless they show symptoms. But the death toll, a more reliable measure, is less than seven per 1m citizens, below some wealthy Gulf states, to say nothing of hard-hit countries such as Britain （over 500 per 1m citizens）. 　　The looser lockdown has not spared Egypt an economic crisis, however. The private sector, weak to start, is in free fall: the purchasing managers’ index crashed from 44.2 in March to 29.7 in April, an all-time low （anything below 50 suggests a contraction）. Export orders fell even faster. Big sources of foreign currency are particularly vulnerable to a downturn. Citizens were already struggling after years of political turmoil and austerity; the state lacks the resources and reach to deliver large amounts of aid. Egypt may be first, but similar problems will clobber the Arab world’s other non-oil states in the coming months. 　　First to suffer was tourism, which employs one in ten Egyptians. Last year foreign visitors brought in $13bn, about 5% of GDP （see chart）. With airports closed since March, revenue is now zero. The national carrier, Egyptair, had hoped to resume international flights in June, but the government has extended the closure indefinitely. Desperate to snag some cash, hotels have started to reopen （at a maximum 25% occupancy） for domestic tourists, but they spend a lot less than foreigners. 　　A larger concern is the 3.4m Egyptians who work overseas. In 2019 Egypt was the fifth-largest recipient of remittances: $27bn, about 9% of GDP. It is too early to say how far that number will fall, but the World Bank estimates that global remittances could drop by 20% this year. More than half of Egyptian expats work in the Gulf states, which have begun widespread salary cuts and lay-offs driven by low oil prices. 　　Even the Suez canal, which collects a reliable $5bn-6bn in annual transit fees, could take a hit. Fully laden vessels can pay almost $1m to sail through it. They pay the toll because the alternative is to sail thousands of miles round Africa. But low oil prices mean fuel is cheap, and weak global demand means ships are in no hurry to make port. Almost two dozen vessels sailing to and from Asia have skipped the canal and gone the long way. The canal authority has lowered fees to stay competitive. 　　Foreign reserves, which plunged after the revolution in 2011, had recovered to a comfortable $45bn in February. They are now dropping again, to $37bn at the end of April, as the state covers loan repayments and portfolio outflows. Fitch, a ratings agency, thinks they will hit $31bn this year. It sees the current-account deficit widening to 5.3% of GDP, up from 3.6% last year. 　　Bankers estimate that Egypt will need at least $10bn in external financing. It has already turned to the IMF. Last year it finished a three-year, $12bn IMF programme that trimmed the deficit to 8% of GDP, from 12% three years earlier. The fund has already approved $2.8bn in new emergency financing and is in talks for a standby loan of up to $5bn more. 　　Still, the state has limited firepower to help those struggling. Civil servants and pensioners will receive a modest pay bump. But many will have to give back 1% of their monthly income in a new “corona tax”. Thousands of families were added to the main cash-transfer schemes, which reach 10% of the population. The central bank has earmarked 50bn pounds （$3.2bn） for soft loans to help tourist businesses. They carry two-year repayment terms; travel agents think it will take at least that long for the sector to rebound. Informal workers generate perhaps half of GDP. Most are now idled. The government promised them 500 pounds a month for three months－less than half the average weekly wage. Charities are distributing twice as many food boxes this Ramadan as last year. 　　Business is slumping. Many big firms reported soft sales in the first quarter, which captures only the early weeks of the pandemic. GB Auto, a car giant, saw revenue fall by 4.1% compared with 2019. Edita, a snack firm, reported a 44% drop in year-on-year profits. Billboards along Cairo’s main roads, which should be full of advertisements aimed at Ramadan shoppers, are blank. Sensing a growing unease, the government has stifled any criticism. 　　Other Arab states are emerging from lockdown into the same problems. Although Egypt’s tourism revenues are large in absolute terms, the sector in Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan is bigger as a share of GDP. The latter two also depend heavily on remittances. All three have lower long-term credit ratings than Egypt （none worse than Lebanon, which defaulted in March）. Egypt was astute to ask the IMF for early help: its neighbours are not far behind. 来源：经济学人，作者：Riders wanted \t