德意志银行：欧洲银行业面临进一步冲击

德意志银行：欧洲银行业面临进一步冲击(2020.05.28) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：欧洲银行业在今年1季度遭受新冠疫情的重创，超过1/3的银行机构亏损。贷款损失准备金激增导致其1季度基本未能盈利；另一方面，企业贷款增长、央行流动性储备增长以及衍生品交易量增长导致银行业资产负债表规模在1季度环比增长10%，创下环比增幅的历史新高。欧洲银行业无疑将会遭受进一步冲击。 　　（外脑精华·北京）欧洲银行业在1季度遭受新冠危机的重创，但迄今对新冠危机的应对情况较好。不过，欧洲银行业肯定将遭受进一步的冲击。虽然营收和成本双双略降，但欧洲银行业的贷款损失准备金激增，几乎吞噬了行业的全部利润。欧洲银行业1季度的资本总额环比下降，但好于欧洲银行机构2019年纷纷取消派息分红的状况。由于企业贷款增长、央行流动性储备增长以及衍生品交易量增长，欧洲银行业1季度资产负债表规模环比增长10%，创下环比增幅的历史新高。 　　1季度遭受重创 　　欧洲20家主要银行在1季度遭受了新冠危机及其引发的经济衰退的重创，但这些银行迄今一直能够控制损失规模。由于各家银行机构收入发展态势不同，这些银行的1季度资产总额同比略降1%。一方面，客户的股票和债券交易量增长推动这些银行1季度手续费和佣金收入总额同比增长9%，尤其是在3月份市场动荡期间。另一方面，信贷利差扩大以及股市市值缩水导致这些银行的1季度交易收入总额同比下降26%。利润率下降和交易收入增长的影响基本相抵，这些银行机构的1季度净利息收入总额同比持平，而营业费用呈持续下降趋势（同比下降1%），但平均成本收入比小幅上升2%至66%。 　　欧洲银行业资产损益表遭受的最直接影响是贷款损失准备金激增。1季度欧洲银行业贷款损失准备金同比增长2.5倍（去年同期时欧洲银行业的贷款损失准备金已经降至接近历史低点税）。此外，虽然经济衰退对欧洲的影响可能超过美国，但与美国银行业今年1季度贷款损失准备金的拨备资金总额同比飙升4.5倍形成鲜明反差的是，欧洲银行业1季度贷款损失准备金的拨备资金总额仅同比略增。预计今年欧元区和英国的GDP将分别下降12%和11.5%，而今年美国GDP将下降7%。 　　这是衡量经济冲击的一个重要标准，虽然结构性差异和一系列不同的政府支持措施（这些措施将对贷款违约率产生影响）使得经济降幅不能一对一地转化为贷款损失。虽然政策制定者已经指令欧洲银行机构不要大举提供资金，并在会计框架中动用所有可用的灵活性，但这可能导致金融危机后的动荡局势卷土重来。美国银行业的贷款损失准备金在2011～2012年期间已经恢复至正常水平，而欧洲银行业贷款损失准备金则是直至2014～2015年期间才恢复至正常水平。，除欧洲主权债务危机的第二轮影响外，原因之一是2008～2010年金融危机期间和危机过后之初，欧洲银行业大幅削减准备金，而美国银行业采取了更大胆的举措。欧洲银行机构在相对更长额时间里负重前行使得美国同行能够在竞争中取得领先并获得市场份额，尤其是在资本市场业务方面。 　　总之，由于超过/13的欧洲银行机构亏损（而美国银行机构在1季度全部实现盈利），欧洲银行业今年1季度的净收入近乎为零（同比下降84%）。欧洲银行业的净收入在去年已经出现下降。金融危机以来，欧洲主要银行机构唯有在2018年全部实现盈利，而且这种状况可能将持续一段时间。 　　资产负债表大幅增长 　　在资产负债表中，欧洲银行业1季度资产总额同比增长8%，在过去3个月中激增10%。资产总额在1季度出现季节性增长是常态，这一增幅前所未有，而且创下自统计该项数据以来（始于2005年）以来的最高季度环比增幅。即使是在2007～2009年金融危机或欧债危机的动荡时期，欧洲银行业的资产负债表规模也未出现如此大幅度的增长。这是由于央行流动性储备增长、银行间债权增长、衍生品交易量增加以及（企业）贷款激增所致。这凸显了银行机构在当前危机中发挥了完全不同并且更为积极的作用：银行系统的缺陷是引发金融危机和全球经济衰退的根源，而且爱尔兰、西班牙和意大利等国银行业的疲弱导致2010～2015年期间的欧洲债务危机加剧。相比之下，目前，虽然欧洲银行机构的信誉度下降并且其资本水平承压，但可以继续支持客户和金融企业、家庭和政府，即使他们的信誉恶化，从而有助于缓解重创世界的经济冲击波。从此而言，新冠危机为欧洲银行业提供了在一定程度上恢复其良好信誉的“救赎”机会。 　　欧洲银行业1季度风险加权资总额同比和环比均增长2%，主要原因是资产增长、信用评级变动、证券化头寸的监管升级以及金融市场极端波动导致市场风险上升。这足以抵消抛售部分资产的影响，而且新兴市场货币兑欧元汇率的贬值也产生了积极的外汇效应。 　　欧洲银行业今年1季度总股本基数同比和环比均小幅增长1%。1季度欧洲银行业平均一级资本充足率为13.5%，同比小幅上升0.2%，但环比大幅下降0.4%。已经入账的2019年股息的（有些银行制定了高派息方案）的发放在欧洲央行指导下，已被取消或至少推迟，这被R风险加权资产的增幅以及一些欧洲银行机构的净亏损额所抵消，这些银行机构的亏损导致资本比充足率下降。当然，如果贷款损失准备金增长，资本充足率将出现更大幅度下降。同样，欧洲银行业1季度杠杆率同比持平于4.8%，但环比下降0.3%。总体而言，欧洲银行业的资本头寸在未来一段时间里将维持强劲水平。不过，鉴于在1季度才全面爆发的经济衰退可能将持续至2022年，欧洲银行业的资本充足率将继续承压。在流动性方面，虽然发生恶劣动荡，欧洲银行业1季度流动性覆盖率环比持稳于146%（同比下降5%）。 　　英文原文： Historic quarter for European banks at the onset of the corona crisis 　　European banks have taken a substantial initial hit from the corona crisis in Q1, but so far digested it relatively well. Nevertheless, more pain is surely to come. While revenues and costs were both down only mildly, loan loss provisions shot up and almost wiped out industry profits. Capital levels dropped quarter-over-quarter, yet less than feared as banks cancelled 2019 dividends. Balance sheets expanded by a record-breaking 10% compared to year-end due to growth in corporate loans, higher liquidity reserves at central banks and increased derivatives volumes. 　　The 20 major European banks have been hit hard in Q1 by the coronavirus crisis and the recession triggered by it, but so far they have managed to contain the fallout. Total revenues were slightly down yoy （-1%） on the back of diverging trends. On the one hand, especially during the market turmoil in March, clients traded more stocks and bonds, which benefited fee and commission income （+9%）. On the other hand, trading income （ 26%） suffered from wider credit spreads and lower stock market valuations. Net interest income was flat, with margin compression and volume growth largely offsetting each other. The trend of falling operating expenses continued （-1%）. Still, the average cost-income ratio edged up 2 pp to 66%. 　　The biggest immediate P&L impact was a jump in loan loss provisions. They rose to 2? times the prior-year level – which had been close to record lows, however. In addition, the provisions are modest compared to US peers where they surged to 4? times the 2019 figure in Q1, although the recession may hit Europe more than the US. GDP is expected to slump by 12% in the euro area and 11.5% in the UK in 2020, compared to 7% in the US. This is an important yardstick for the economic shock though it does not translate one-to-one into loan losses thanks to structural differences and a host of varying government support measures which will have an effect on default probabilities. While policymakers have instructed European banks not to provision aggressively and use all available flexibility in the accounting framework, this risks a repeat of the precarious post-financial crisis experience. US banks’ loan loss provisions were back at normal levels already in 2011/12, whereas it took their European counterparts much longer, until 2014/15. One of the reasons, apart from the second-round effect of the European sovereign debt crisis, were the considerably lower provisions in Europe and the bolder reaction of US banks during and immediately after the financial crisis in 2008-10. The prolonged burden on European banks enabled their US competitors to pull ahead and gain market share, especially in the capital markets business. 　　Bottom line, net income was almost wiped out in the first quarter （-84% yoy） as more than a third of the European banks recorded a net loss （in contrast to their US peers which all stayed in the black）. This followed softer net income last year already. 2018 had been the only full year since the financial crisis when all major European banks were profitable and it may remain so for the time being. 　　On the balance sheet, total assets jumped by 8% yoy and a staggering 10% in the last three months. A seasonal gain in Q1 is common, but this one is unprecedented and the strongest surge in a single quarter on record （which started in 2005）. Not even during the tumultuous years of the financial crisis of 2007-09 or the European debt crisis did banks’ balance sheets grow as massively. That was due to higher liquidity reserves at central banks and interbank claims, higher derivatives volumes, and a strong increase in （corporate） loans. This underscores banks’ fundamentally different, more positive role in the current crisis: deficiencies in the banking system had been at the core of the financial crisis and the Global Recession, and weak banking sectors in countries such as Ireland, Spain and Italy aggravated the debt crisis of 2010-15. Now, by contrast, banks can contribute to mitigating the economic shock that has hit the world like a bolt out of the blue, by continuing to support clients and finance companies, households and governments even when their creditworthiness deteriorates and banks’ capital levels are under pressure. In this sense, the corona crisis offers the banking industry “redemption”, i.e. an opportunity to somewhat restore its reputation as a good corporate citizen. 　　Risk-weighted assets （RWA） climbed 2% both yoy and qoq in Q1, mainly because of asset growth, rating migration, regulatory inflation for securitisation positions and higher market risk due to the extreme financial market volatility. This more than offset some asset sales and positive FX effects, as emerging market currencies devalued against the euro. 　　The total equity base rose by a modest 1% yoy and qoq. At 13.5%, the average CET1 ratio slightly exceeded its level of 12 months ago （+0.2 pp）, however, decreased materially since year-end 2019 （-0.4 pp）. The release of （sometimes substantial） 2019 dividends which had already been accounted for, yet were scrapped or at least delayed following ECB guidance, was more than offset by the increase in RWA as well as net losses at some institutions, which contributed to lower capital ratios. Of course, they would have fallen more had loan loss provisions been higher. Similarly, the leverage ratio was flat yoy at 4.8% but contracted 0.3 pp qoq. Overall, capital positions remain robust for the time being. Most of the pain, though, is still to come as the recession only fully bites in the current quarter and will probably take until 2022 to be completely overcome. On the liquidity side, despite the turmoil, banks managed to keep the LCR broadly stable qoq at a solid 146% on average （down 5 pp yoy）. 来源：德意志银行，作者：Jan Schildbach \t