经济学人：油价暴跌令中国主导油气买方市场

经济学人：油价暴跌令中国主导油气买方市场(2020.05.28) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：2017年中国成为世界第一大原油进口国，以及仅次于日本的第二大液化天然气进口国。依赖外国燃料一向被视为一种战略弱点。然而，现状却是油气供应者竭力争夺中国买家，而不是相反。甚至在新冠疫情爆发之前，中国的市场影响力便已呈现增大之势。随着疫情重创能源需求，中国正受益于买方市场。现在还不清楚，中国能否继续成为全球需求的亮点，但中国油气市场争夺战仍在继续。 　　（外脑精华·北京）就在过剩石油供应令美国俄克拉荷马州库辛的储油罐不堪重负之时，遥远的中国重庆也被波及。因5月份WTI期货结算价格达到令人震惊的-37.63美元/桶，中行“原油宝”（挂钩原油期货的投资工具）的散户投资者遭受沉重打击。油市的震荡在中国制造了出人意料的受害者，并引起轩然大波，据报道，监管机构已要求进行调查。但总体而言，油价暴跌令中国买家受益匪浅。 　　市场影响力增大 　　2017年中国超越美国，成为世界第一大原油进口国，并成为仅次于日本的第二大液化天然气（LNG）进口国。依赖外国燃料一向被视为一种战略弱点。然而，现状却是油气供应者竭力争夺中国买家，而不是相反。 　　甚至在新冠疫情爆发之前，中国的市场影响力便已呈现增大之势。就长期而言，尽管气候变化令其他经济体油气需求的前景蒙上了阴影，中国人口和经济总量的增长前景令其成未来需求增长的重要来源。石油公司和产油国都在努力争夺中国市场的份额：俄罗斯Power of Siberia公司的对华输气管道于去年12月开通；埃克森美孚与浙江省能源集团签署了为期20年的液化天然气供应协议。 　　抓住时机 　　随着疫情重创能源需求，中国正受益于买方市场。中国向油气供应方施压。3月份，哈萨克斯坦能源部长称，该国应中国要求将对华天然气出口量削减了20～25%。据报道，中海油援引不可抗力条款，要求暂停接收欧洲三大油气巨头英石油、皇家壳牌和道达尔的液化天然气。 　　中国买家积极利用机会。虽然1季度各类运输量大跌，中国的原油进口量却增长了5%。据研究公司伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的分析师Neil Beveridge估算，1～3月份，中国政府、炼厂及其他买家均积极储存廉价石油，当季全国共增加了约2亿桶原油库存。3月份中国炼厂提高了开工率，从而得益于廉价进口原油与国内石油的价差，这就提高了成品油的利润率。 　　由于中国先于其他市场解除封城，因而石油供应方仍在关注中国市场。正如交易公司Trafigura的Ben Luckock所说，中国是此刻的需求引领者，因而人人都希望把石油卖到中国市场。据市场数据公司Kpler估算，4月份，就在新冠疫情重创全球能源需求的情况下，中国的海上石油进口量却创下历史新高，比去年平均水平增长25%。5月1日，独立炼厂的原油加工量已超过去年12月的水平。 　　争夺还在继续 　　现在还不清楚，中国能否继续成为全球需求的亮点。Beveridge表示，虽然分析师做出了种种努力，包括用卫星图像分析中国储油罐，但没有人知道中国何时达到储油能力的极限。国际能源署预计，由于全球经济将持续低迷，因而下半年中国石油需求将走势低迷。价格数据机构S&P Platts Analytics的Chris Midgley称，中国原油进口量势必会减速，以消耗库存。 　　另一方面，中国市场争夺战仍在继续。5月份沙特大幅调低对亚洲的原油出口价格；其竞争对手正在焦急地等待该国公布6月份价格。中国政府大力支持国内天然气开发，这也令对华天然气出口的前景更加复杂难测。游说集团美国石油协会（American Petroleum Institute，缩写为API）正在敦促美国政府要求中国履行近期达成的贸易协定，进口更多美国油气。API表示，中国的能源需求是增长的，而美国对市场的需求也在增长。 　　英文原文： Custom of the country 　　With oil prices so low, China presides over a buyer’s market 　　WHEN OIL supply threatened to overwhelm storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, in April, the pain was felt as far as Chongqing. Retail investors in the Bank of China’s oil bao, or “treasure”, a speculative vehicle linked to crude futures, took a hit as the May contract for West Texas Intermediate settled at an astonishing -$37.63 a barrel on April 20th. The market’s gyrations have led to consternation in China—regulators have reportedly called for an investigation—and revealed unexpected victims. In general, though, plunging prices have served Chinese buyers rather well. 　　In 2017 China became the world’s biggest importer of crude, surpassing America, and the second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), behind Japan. Dependence on foreign fuels has long been deemed a strategic vulnerability. But now oil and gas suppliers are toiling to secure Chinese buyers, not the other way round. 　　China’s heft was set to grow even before covid-19 kept cars parked and planes grounded. In the long term the growth of China’s population and economy make it a likely source of rising demand, even if climate change clouds prospects for oil and gas elsewhere. Companies and petrostates have worked to secure their share of China’s market: Russia’s Power of Siberia gas pipeline opened in December; ExxonMobil’s efforts include a 20-year deal to supply LNG to Zhejiang Provincial Energy Group. 　　As the pandemic obliterates energy demand, China is revelling in a buyer’s market. It has not been shy about squeezing suppliers. In March Kazakhstan’s energy minister said the country had reduced gas exports to China by 20-25%, at China’s request. China National Offshore Oil Corp reportedly invoked force majeure to halt LNG shipments from BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Total, three European supermajors. 　　Chinese buyers have also been opportunistic. Although car, freight and plane travel dropped in the first quarter, crude imports rose by 5%. Neil Beveridge of Bernstein, a research firm, estimates that about 200m barrels of oil went into storage in China in the first three months of the year, as the government, refiners and other buyers stocked up on inexpensive oil. Refineries lifted run rates in March, benefiting from the gap between cheap imported crude and the state-mandated domestic-price floor of $40 a barrel, which in turn ensured a higher margin for refined products. 　　Oil suppliers continue to look to China, which has eased its lockdown before other markets. “China is leading demand at the moment, so everyone is trying to sell into that market,” says Ben Luckock of Trafigura, a trading group. Even as covid-19 depressed global energy demand, seaborne oil exports to China in April reached a record level, according to Kpler, a market-data firm, and were 25% higher than last year’s average. On May 1st independent refineries, known as “teapots”, were processing more crude oil than in December. In April the Shanghai International Energy Exchange approved new storage capacity for Sinopec and PetroChina, national energy giants. 　　It is unclear if China will remain a bright spot. Despite analysts’ best efforts—by, say, using satellite images to track outlines on storage tanks—no one knows precisely when China’s oil stocks may near its capacity to store it, says Mr Beveridge. The International Energy Agency expects Chinese demand to be tepid in the second half of the year, as the global economy remains weak. “Crude imports are going to have to slow down a bit to run down some of the stocks,” argues Chris Midgley of S&P Platts Analytics, a price-reporting firm. 　　Meanwhile competition to sell to China continues. Saudi Arabia posted steep discounts for crude heading to Asia in May; rivals are nervously awaiting Saudi prices posted for June. Complicating the outlook for gas exporters to China, the government is keen to support domestic gas and the cost of Chinese wells has dropped. The American Petroleum Institute (API), a lobby group, is urging officials to lean on China to import more American oil and gas, as agreed in a recent trade deal. “China has a growing demand for energy,” says Frank Macchiarola of the API, “and we have a growing need for markets.” Join the club. 来源：经济学人 \t